craggle logo

Home Of Fair Facts & Tips

RBA Rate Tracker & Forecasts

Big 4 Banks predicting a further rate cuts in 2025. Stay updated on the latest RBA cash rate, market outlook & expert predictions on potential rate changes.

blog heading image

Next RBA Meeting for 2025: Tuesday, 20th May 2025

See How Your Rate Compares.png

Navigate this Article

Cash Rate movements over 24 years

Return to top

Turbulent Times Prompt Rate Cut Predictions

Global financial markets have been shaken by US President Donald Trump’s newly announced “Liberation Day” tariffs, which impose levies ranging from 10% to 48% on key US trading partners - including a 10% tariff on Australian goods. The result has been a significant slide in global stock markets, wiping out trillions of dollars in just a few days.

In Australia, the ASX 200 fell by 0.9% on 3rd April and 2.4% on the 4th of April, marking a 3.9% decline for the week - its largest drop in two years. This has driven fresh concern among economists that growth could slow further, prompting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider additional rate cuts. All four major Australian banks now predict multiple rate reductions in 2025, with some expecting the first cut could arrive as early as May.

When Will Rates Go Down - Major Bank Predictions

Recent data showing moderation in inflation at the end of 2024, combined with market turmoil triggered by the new US tariffs, has led major banks to change their rate forecasts:

BankNext CutPredicting Cuts InCash Rate Forecast
ANZ May 2025May, July and AugustAs low as 3.5%
Commonwealth Bank May 2025May, August and NovemberReducing to 3.35%
NAB May 2025May, July, August, November and February (2026)Reducing to 2.6%
Westpac May 2025May, August and NovemberReducing to 3.35%
  • ANZ: Anticipating a cut in May 2025, with additional cuts possible in July and August. This could take the cash rate from 4.35% to 3.35%. ANZ hasn’t ruled out a larger 0.50% cut if global sentiment worsens quickly.
  • Commonwealth Bank (CBA): CBA economists project up to 100 basis points in reductions throughout 2025, possibly pushing the rate below 3.35%.
  • National Australia Bank (NAB): Long term, NAB sees the rate falling to about 3.1% by early 2026.
  • Westpac:More rate cuts expected in May, August, and November. Ongoing market stress could prompt quicker action.

Several smaller lenders, such as Bendigo Bank and AMP Bank, also expect the RBA to move earlier than previously predicted.

See What A Rate Change Could Mean For You

Return to top

Factors Driving the Latest Outlook

  1. Trump’s Tariffs and Global Slowdown: Major tariffs imposed by the US have shaken confidence worldwide, escalating the risk of a global recession. Australia’s stock market losses underscore these fears.
  2. Market Meltdown and Confidence: Trillions wiped from equities often lead central banks to ease policy to bolster demand and stabilise sentiment.
  3. Declining Inflation: As inflation fears subside, attention has shifted to sustaining growth. Imported goods may become cheaper if Asian exporters reroute from the US to Australia.
  4. Labor Market Conditions: While tight overall, some slack has appeared, suggesting wage pressures could ease further, which supports rate cuts.
  5. Domestic Growth Concerns: Household consumption remains subdued, and weak consumer/business confidence could tilt the economy further towards sluggish growth.

Balancing Risks

  • Risk of “Over-Cutting”: Too many rate cuts too fast could cause inflation to rebound if global growth recovers more quickly than anticipated.
  • Risk of Staying Too High for Too Long: Failing to cut in time could prolong economic slowdown and worsen unemployment.
  • Biosecurity vs. Trade Barriers: Tensions may rise if the US views Australia’s biosecurity regime as a hidden trade barrier.
  • Global Recession Fears: If other nations retaliate against US tariffs, the risk of a worldwide downturn grows significantly.
Return to top

Latest Decision: Why the RBA Held Cash Rate at 4.10%

In its February 2025 meeting, the Reserve Bank Board voted to hold the cash rate target at 4.10%. Although the policy stance remains unchanged, the RBA announced operational changes - effective 9 April 2025 - aimed at smoothly transitioning to an ‘ample reserves’ system. These adjustments do not signal a shift in monetary policy goals.

Under this updated framework, the RBA supplies bank reserves (Exchange Settlement balances) through Open Market Operations (OMOs). Banks use these reserves to settle transactions and manage liquidity. The new measures include:

  • OMO Pricing: Increasing the cost of new OMO repos from 5 to 10 basis points above the cash rate target to encourage banks to also access private markets.
  • OMO Tenor: Introducing a 7-day term alongside the existing 28-day term, giving banks greater flexibility for short-term liquidity needs.

The RBA emphasises that these operational updates are about improving how monetary policy decisions flow through financial markets, not about changing the policy stance. Banks still have the overnight standing facility available at 25 basis points above the cash rate target for unexpected liquidity needs between OMO auctions.

Overall, the Board believes keeping the cash rate target at 4.10% balances inflation control and employment support. Meanwhile, these operational changes are designed to ensure the reserve management system adapts effectively to evolving market conditions.

Return to top

What This Means for Homeowners and Buyers

For both current homeowners and prospective buyers, here are the potential implications of multiple rate cuts in 2025:

  • Variable-Rate Mortgage Holders: May see lower monthly repayments, but the speed and extent of banks passing on cuts can vary.
  • Fixed-Rate Borrowers: Will not benefit until their terms expire; refinancing could become attractive if rates decline significantly.
  • Prospective Buyers: Slightly improved borrowing capacity could be offset by potential increases in property prices if investors flock to real estate to escape share market volatility.
  • Overall Caution: Multiple cuts signal deeper economic trouble. Building up financial buffers remains essential.

See What A Rate Change Could Mean For You.png Return to top

RBA meeting dates for 2025

2025 Reserve Bank Board meetings

  • January – No meeting
  • 17–18 February
  • 31 March–1 April
  • 19–20 May
  • June – No meeting
  • 7–8 July
  • 11–12 August
  • 29–30 September
  • October – No meeting
  • 3–4 November
  • 8–9 December

What time does the RBA announce the Cash Rate change?

The Reserve Bank Board announces monetary policy decisions, cash rate changes, at ~2.30pm AEDT in a media release after each meeting.

Return to top

What is the RBA Cash Rate?

At its core, the cash rate is the interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial institutions. It’s a powerful lever that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) adjusts to control economic activity, manage inflation, and influence employment rates.

A lower cash rate can stimulate spending and investment by making loans cheaper, whereas a higher rate can cool down an overheating economy by making borrowing more expensive.

The history of Australia’s cash rate is a narrative of strategic economic management through diverse global and local challenges. It charts a course through times of boom and bust, revealing how monetary policy has adapted to maintain stability and promote growth.

Return to top

See How Your Rate Compares.png

RBA Rate Tracker – 2025

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-254.35(No RBA Meeting)
Feb-254.1-0.25
Mar-254.1-
Apr-254.1-
May-25
Jun-25
Jul-25(No RBA Meeting)
Aug-25
Sep-25
Oct-25(No RBA Meeting)
Nov-25
Dec-25

Return to top

How Does The RBA Shape Interest Rates.png

Historical Overview of the Australian Cash Rate

Early Years: The Foundation and Initial Fluctuations

The inception of the cash rate as a tool for monetary policy dates back to the early days of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s establishment in 1960. Initially, the focus was on maintaining currency stability and supporting full employment. However, as the global and domestic economic landscapes evolved, so did the objectives and strategies around the cash rate.

The Turn of the Century: A New Economic Era

The turn of the century marked a period of significant change for Australia’s economy, influenced by both global and domestic factors. The Asian Financial Crisis of the late 1990s, the Dot-com bubble burst, and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008–2009 were pivotal events that tested and shaped the RBA cash rate and monetary policies.

2010–2019: Navigating Modern Challenges

Between 2010 and 2019, the Australian economy experienced ongoing challenges, including fluctuating commodity prices and shifts in global trade. During this period, the Reserve Bank took a measured approach to setting the cash rate, aiming to balance inflation targets with growth objectives. This underscored the RBA’s commitment to stabilising the economy despite global headwinds and domestic policy considerations.

2020 to Today: Responding to Unprecedented Disruptions

From 2020 onward, the Australian economy faced unprecedented disruptions, primarily driven by the global COVID-19 pandemic. In response, the RBA introduced additional policy measures and reduced the cash rate to record lows. These actions underscored the flexibility and adaptability of monetary policy in mitigating immediate economic fallout while laying the groundwork for a sustained recovery.

RBA Rate History: 2020-2024

Return to top

RBA Rate Tracker – 2024

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-244.35-
Feb-244.35-
Mar-244.35-
Apr-244.35(No RBA Meeting)
May-244.35-
Jun-244.35-
Jul-244.35(No RBA Meeting)
Aug-244.35-
Sep-244.35-
Oct-244.35(No RBA Meeting)
Nov-244.35-
Dec-244.35-

RBA Cash Rate History: 2020-2024

RBA Rate Tracker – 2023

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-233.10-
Feb-233.350.25
Mar-233.60.25
Apr-233.6-
May-233.850.25
Jun-234.10.25
Jul-234.1-
Aug-234.1-
Sep-234.1-
Oct-234.1-
Nov-234.350.25
Dec-234.35-

RBA Cash Rate History: 2020-2024

RBA Rate Tracker – 2022

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-220.1-
Feb-220.1-
Mar-220.1-
Apr-220.1-
May-220.350.25
Jun-220.850.5
Jul-221.350.5
Aug-221.850.5
Sep-222.350.5
Oct-222.60.25
Nov-222.850.25
Dec-223.10.25

RBA Cash Rate History: 2020-2024

RBA Rate Tracker – 2021

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-210.1-
Feb-210.1-
Mar-210.1-
Apr-210.1-
May-210.1-
Jun-210.1-
Jul-210.1-
Aug-210.1-
Sep-210.1-
Oct-210.1-
Nov-210.1-
Dec-210.1-

RBA Cash Rate History: 2020-2024

RBA Rate Tracker – 2020

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-200.75-
Feb-200.75-
Mar-200.5-0.25
Mar-200.25-0.25
Apr-200.25-
May-200.25-
Jun-200.25-
Jul-200.25-
Aug-200.25-
Sep-200.25-
Oct-200.25-
Nov-200.1-0.15
Dec-200.1-

RBA Cash Rate History: 2020-2024

RBA Cash Rate History: 2010-2019

Return to top

RBA Rate Tracker –2019

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-191.5-
Feb-191.5-
Mar-191.5-
Apr-191.5-
May-191.5-
Jun-191.25-0.25
Jul-191-0.25
Aug-191-
Sep-191-
Oct-190.75-0.25
Nov-190.75-
Dec-190.75-
RBA Cash Rate History: 2010-2019

RBA Rate Tracker –2018

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-181.5-
Feb-181.5-
Mar-181.5-
Apr-181.5-
May-181.5-
Jun-181.5-
Jul-181.5-
Aug-181.5-
Sep-181.5-
Oct-181.5-
Nov-181.5-
Dec-181.5-

RBA Cash Rate History: 2010-2019

RBA Rate Tracker –2017

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-171.5-
Feb-171.5-
Mar-171.5-
Apr-171.5-
May-171.5-
Jun-171.5-
Jul-171.5-
Aug-171.5-
Sep-171.5-
Oct-171.5-
Nov-171.5-
Dec-171.5-

RBA Cash Rate History: 2010-2019

RBA Rate Tracker –2016

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-162-
Feb-162-
Mar-162-
Apr-162-
May-161.75-0.25
Jun-161.75-
Jul-161.75-
Aug-161.5-0.25
Sep-161.5-
Oct-161.5-
Nov-161.5-
Dec-161.5-

RBA Cash Rate History: 2010-2019

RBA Rate Tracker –2015

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-152-
Feb-152.25-0.25
Mar-152.25-
Apr-152.25-
May-152-0.25
Jun-152-
Jul-152-
Aug-152-
Sep-152-
Oct-152-
Nov-152-
Dec-152-

RBA Cash Rate History: 2010-2019

RBA Rate Tracker –2014

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-142.5-
Feb-142.5-
Mar-142.5-
Apr-142.5-
May-142.5-
Jun-142.5-
Jul-142.5-
Aug-142.5-
Sep-142.5-
Oct-142.5-
Nov-142.5-
Dec-142.5-

RBA Cash Rate History: 2010-2019

RBA Rate Tracker –2013

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-133-
Feb-133-
Mar-133-
Apr-133-
May-132.75-0.25
Jun-132.75-
Jul-132.75-
Aug-132.5-0.25
Sep-132.5-
Oct-132.5-
Nov-132.5-
Dec-132.5-

RBA Cash Rate History: 2010-2019

RBA Rate Tracker –2012

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-124.25-
Feb-124.25-
Mar-124.25-
Apr-124.25-
May-123.75-0.5
Jun-123.5-0.25
Jul-123.5-
Aug-123.5-
Sep-123.5-
Oct-123.25-0.25
Nov-123.25-
Dec-123-0.25

RBA Cash Rate History: 2010-2019

RBA Rate Tracker –2011

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-114.75-
Feb-114.75-
Mar-114.75-
Apr-114.75-
May-114.75-
Jun-114.75-
Jul-114.75-
Aug-114.75-
Sep-114.75-
Oct-114.75-
Nov-114.5-0.25
Dec-114.25-0.25

RBA Cash Rate History: 2010-2019

RBA Rate Tracker –2010

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-103.75-
Feb-103.75-
Mar-1040.25
Apr-104.250.25
May-104.50.25
Jun-104.5-
Jul-104.5-
Aug-104.5-
Sep-104.5-
Oct-104.5-
Nov-104.750.25
Dec-104.75-

The 2000s: Stability and Growth

The early 2000s were characterised by economic stability and growth, but the GFC presented unprecedented challenges. Australia's cash rate saw significant adjustments as the RBA aimed to shield the economy from the worst impacts of the crisis.

RBA Cash Rate History: 2000-2009

Return to top

RBA Rate Tracker – 2009

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-094.25-
Feb-093.25-1
Mar-093.25-
Apr-093-0.25
May-093-
Jun-093-
Jul-093-
Aug-093-
Sep-093-
Oct-093.250.25
Nov-093.50.25
Dec-093.750.25

RBA Cash Rate History: 2000-2009

RBA Rate Tracker – 2008

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-086.75-
Feb-0870.25
Mar-087.250.25
Apr-087.25-
May-087.25-
Jun-087.25-
Jul-087.25-
Aug-087.25-
Sep-087-0.25
Oct-086-1
Nov-085.25-0.75
Dec-084.25-1

RBA Cash Rate History: 2000-2009

RBA Rate Tracker – 2007

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-076.25-
Feb-076.25-
Mar-076.25-
Apr-076.25-
May-076.25-
Jun-076.25-
Jul-076.25-
Aug-076.50.25
Sep-076.5-
Oct-076.5-
Nov-076.750.25
Dec-076.75-

RBA Cash Rate History: 2000-2009

RBA Rate Tracker – 2006

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-065.5-
Feb-065.5-
Mar-065.5-
Apr-065.5-
May-065.750.25
Jun-065.75-
Jul-065.75-
Aug-0660.25
Sep-066-
Oct-066-
Nov-066.250.25
Dec-066.25-

RBA Cash Rate History: 2000-2009

RBA Rate Tracker – 2005

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-055.25-
Feb-055.25-
Mar-055.50.25
Apr-055.5-
May-055.5-
Jun-055.5-
Jul-055.5-
Aug-055.5-
Sep-055.5-
Oct-055.5-
Nov-055.5-
Dec-055.5-

RBA Cash Rate History: 2000-2009

RBA Rate Tracker – 2004

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-045.25-
Feb-045.25-
Mar-045.25-
Apr-045.25-
May-045.25-
Jun-045.25-
Jul-045.25-
Aug-045.25-
Sep-045.25-
Oct-045.25-
Nov-045.25-
Dec-045.25-

RBA Cash Rate History: 2000-2009

RBA Rate Tracker – 2003

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-034.75-
Feb-034.75-
Mar-034.75-
Apr-034.75-
May-034.75-
Jun-034.75-
Jul-034.75-
Aug-034.75-
Sep-034.75-
Oct-034.75-
Nov-0350.25
Dec-035.250.25

RBA Cash Rate History: 2000-2009

RBA Rate Tracker – 2002

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-024.25-
Feb-024.25-
Mar-024.25-
Apr-024.25-
May-024.50.25
Jun-024.750.25
Jul-024.75-
Aug-024.75-
Sep-024.75-
Oct-024.75-
Nov-024.75-
Dec-024.75-

RBA Cash Rate History: 2000-2009

RBA Rate Tracker – 2001

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-016.25-
Feb-015.75-0.5
Mar-015.5-0.25
Apr-015-0.5
May-015-
Jun-015-
Jul-015-
Aug-015-
Sep-014.75-0.25
Oct-014.5-0.25
Nov-014.5-
Dec-014.25-0.25

RBA Cash Rate History: 2000-2009

RBA Rate Tracker – 2000

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-005-
Feb-005.50.5
Mar-005.5-
Apr-005.750.25
May-0060.25
Jun-006-
Jul-006-
Aug-006.250.25
Sep-006.25-
Oct-006.25-
Nov-006.25-
Dec-006.25-

The 1990s: Economic Reforms and Challenges

This decade was marked by considerable economic reforms, including the floating of the Australian dollar and the deregulation of the financial system. These changes laid the groundwork for a more open and flexible economy but also introduced new challenges, especially during the Asian Financial Crisis.

RBA Cash Rate History: 1990-1999

Return to top

RBA Rate Tracker – 1999

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-994.75-
Feb-994.75-
Mar-994.75-
Apr-994.75-
May-994.75-
Jun-994.75-
Jul-994.75-
Aug-994.75-
Sep-994.75-
Oct-994.75-
Nov-9950.25
Dec-995-

RBA Cash Rate History: 1990-1999

RBA Rate Tracker – 1998

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-980.05-
Feb-980.05-
Mar-985-
Apr-985-
May-985-
Jun-985-
Jul-985-
Aug-985-
Sep-985-
Oct-985-
Nov-985-
Dec-984.75-0.25

RBA Cash Rate History: 1990-1999

RBA Rate Tracker – 1997

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-976-
Feb-976-
Mar-976-
Apr-976-
May-976-
May-975.5-0.5
Jun-975.5-
Jul-975.5-
Jul-975-0.5
Aug-975-
Sep-975-
Oct-975-
Nov-975-
Dec-975-

RBA Cash Rate History: 1990-1999

RBA Rate Tracker – 1996

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-967.5-
Feb-967.5-
Mar-967.5-
Apr-967.5-
May-967.5-
Jun-967.5-
Jul-967.5-
Jul-967-0.5
Sep-967-
Oct-967-
Nov-966.5-0.5
Dec-966-0.5

RBA Cash Rate History: 1990-1999

RBA Rate Tracker – 1995

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-957.5-
Feb-957.5-
Mar-957.5-
Apr-957.5-
May-957.5-
Jun-957.5-
Jul-957.5-
Jul-957.5-
Sep-957.5-
Oct-957.5-
Nov-957.5-
Dec-957.5-

RBA Cash Rate History: 1990-1999

RBA Rate Tracker – 1994

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-944.75-
Feb-944.75-
Mar-944.75-
Mar-944.75-
May-944.75-
Jun-944.75-
Jul-944.75-
Jul-944.75-
Aug-945.50.75
Sep-945.5-
Oct-946.51
Nov-946.5-
Dec-947.51

RBA Cash Rate History: 1990-1999

RBA Rate Tracker – 1993

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-935.75-
Feb-935.75-
Mar-935.25-0.5
Apr-935.25-
May-935.25-
Jun-935.25-
Jul-935.25-
Jul-934.75-0.5
Sep-934.75-
Oct-934.75-
Nov-934.75-
Dec-934.75-

RBA Cash Rate History: 1990-1999

RBA Rate Tracker – 1992

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-927.5-1
Feb-927.5-
Mar-927.5-
Apr-927.5-
May-926.5-1
Jun-926.5-
Jul-925.75-0.75
Jul-925.75-
Sep-925.75-
Oct-925.75-
Nov-925.75-
Dec-925.75-

RBA Cash Rate History: 1990-1999

RBA Rate Tracker – 1991

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-9112-
Feb-9112-
Mar-9112-
Apr-9111.5-0.5
May-9110.5-1
Jun-9110.5-
Jul-9110.5-
Jul-9110.5-
Sep-919.5-1
Oct-919.5-
Nov-918.5-1
Dec-918.5-

RBA Cash Rate History: 1990-1999

RBA Rate Tracker – 1990

Effective DateCash Rate (%)Change % points
Jan-9017-0.5
Feb-9016.5-0.5
Mar-9016.5-
Apr-9015-1.5
May-9015-
Jun-9015-
Jul-9015-
Aug-9014-1
Sep-9014-
Oct-9013-1
Nov-9013-
Dec-9012-1
RBA Cash Rate History: 1990-1999

Factors Influencing Changes in the Cash Rate

Changes in the cash rate are influenced by a variety of factors, including inflation, economic growth, and global economic conditions. The RBA cash rate decisions are aimed at achieving a balance that supports sustainable growth while keeping inflation within target ranges.

The Future of Australia's Cash Rate

Predicting the future direction of the cash rate involves considering current economic indicators, expert forecasts, and global economic trends. While uncertainty is a constant in economic forecasting, understanding the historical context can provide valuable insights into potential future movements.

Conclusion

The historical journey of Australia's cash rate is more than a series of numbers; it's a reflection of the nation's economic resilience and the strategic foresight of its policymakers. As we look towards the future, this history serves as a reminder of the importance of adaptability, sound economic management, and the role of informed policy decisions in navigating the complexities of the global economy.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are strictly for general informational and entertainment purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice or recommendations.

Written By

avatar

The Craggle Team