Next RBA meeting on 18th February 2025. Explore the latest cash rate outlook, expert predictions, and how refinancing can save you money on your home loan.
Next RBA Meeting for 2024: Tuesday, 18th February 2025
Major bank economists are in agreement that the cash rate has likely peaked at 4.35%, here's what Economists at each of the Major Banks are predicting.
ANZ: Early 2025
ANZ economists expect the cash rate has reached its peak at 4.35% and forecast the first rate cuts to begin around February 2025.
Commonwealth Bank: Early 2025
Economists at the Commonwealth Bank agree that the cash rate has likely peaked at 4.35% and predict the initial rate cut to occur in February 2025.
NAB: Mid 2025
NAB economists believe the cash rate has peaked at 4.35%. Initially forecasting a rate cut in May 2025, they briefly revised their prediction to February 2025 but have since reverted to expecting the first cut in May.
Westpac: May 2025
Westpac economists also project the cash rate has peaked at 4.35%, with the first reduction expected in May 2025. Similar to NAB, Westpac had temporarily adjusted its forecast to February but has now returned to predicting May 2025 for the initial cut.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to keep the cash rate target steady at 4.35% during its meeting on 5 November 2024. This decision reflects the central bank's assessment that while headline inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, underlying inflation remains too high. The trimmed mean inflation, a measure of underlying inflation, was recorded at 3.5% over the year to the September quarter, still above the RBA's target midpoint of 2.5%. The RBA's latest forecasts suggest that inflation is not expected to return sustainably to the midpoint of the target range until 2026.
In its Statement on Monetary Policy, the RBA emphasized that monetary policy will remain restrictive until there is confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range. The Board is closely monitoring economic indicators and is prepared to adjust policy settings as necessary to achieve its mandate of price stability and full employment.
Factors Driving Predictions
Several factors are influencing the RBA's current outlook. The persistence of underlying inflation above the target range is a primary concern, driven by aggregate demand exceeding the economy's supply capacity. This is evidenced by robust business conditions and a strong labor market. Although wage pressures have eased somewhat, labor productivity has only returned to 2016 levels, which contributes to inflationary pressures.
Global economic uncertainties also play a significant role. Developments such as the expansionary policies in China and geopolitical tensions add layers of unpredictability to the economic environment. Additionally, while other central banks have begun easing monetary policy as inflation trends downward, the RBA remains cautious due to the unique conditions of the Australian economy.
The Australian economy is experiencing weak output growth, partly due to past declines in real disposable incomes and the impact of restrictive financial conditions on household consumption, especially in discretionary spending. Despite this, aggregate consumer demand—which includes spending by temporary residents like students and tourists—has shown resilience.
Labor market conditions remain tight but are gradually easing. Employment saw strong growth over the three months to September, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.1% from a low of 3.5% in late 2022. The participation rate remains at record highs, and while some indicators like vacancies have stabilized, others such as youth unemployment and underemployment have recently declined, indicating continued tightness in the labor market.
What This Means for Homeowners
For homeowners, the RBA's decision to maintain the cash rate at 4.35% means that interest rates on mortgages are likely to remain elevated in the near term. This sustained period of higher interest rates could continue to strain household budgets, especially for those with variable-rate mortgages or those looking to enter the housing market.
However, the RBA notes that income growth is expected to pick up, potentially boosting household consumption in the latter half of the year. Homeowners may find some relief if income gains offset higher borrowing costs. Nonetheless, given the uncertainties surrounding the economic outlook and the RBA's commitment to curbing inflation, homeowners should remain cautious and consider the potential for prolonged higher interest rates when making financial decisions.
At its core, the cash rate is the interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial institutions. It's a powerful lever that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) adjusts to control economic activity, manage inflation, and influence employment rates. A lower cash rate can stimulate spending and investment by making loans cheaper, whereas a higher rate can cool down an overheating economy by making borrowing more expensive.
The history of Australia's cash rate is a narrative of strategic economic management through diverse global and local challenges. It charts a course through times of boom and bust, revealing how monetary policy has adapted to maintain stability and promote growth.
Early Years: The Foundation and Initial Fluctuations
The inception of the cash rate as a tool for monetary policy dates back to the early days of the Reserve Bank of Australia's establishment in 1960. Initially, the focus was on maintaining currency stability and supporting full employment. However, as the global and domestic economic landscapes evolved, so did the objectives and strategies around the cash rate.
The Turn of the Century: A New Economic Era
The turn of the century marked a period of significant change for Australia's economy, influenced by both global and domestic factors. The Asian Financial Crisis of the late 1990s, the Dot-com bubble burst, and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-2009 were pivotal events that tested and shaped the RBA cash rate & monetary policies.
The 2010s to Present: Navigating Modern Challenges
More recently, the Australian economy has faced modern challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic. The RBA rate response, including reaching historically low cash rates, reflects the ongoing evolution of monetary policy in addressing global and domestic economic shocks.
The early 2000s were characterised by economic stability and growth, but the GFC presented unprecedented challenges. Australia's cash rate saw significant adjustments as the RBA aimed to shield the economy from the worst impacts of the crisis.
This decade was marked by considerable economic reforms, including the floating of the Australian dollar and the deregulation of the financial system. These changes laid the groundwork for a more open and flexible economy but also introduced new challenges, especially during the Asian Financial Crisis.
Changes in the cash rate are influenced by a variety of factors, including inflation, economic growth, and global economic conditions. The RBA cash rate decisions are aimed at achieving a balance that supports sustainable growth while keeping inflation within target ranges.
The Future of Australia's Cash Rate
Predicting the future direction of the cash rate involves considering current economic indicators, expert forecasts, and global economic trends. While uncertainty is a constant in economic forecasting, understanding the historical context can provide valuable insights into potential future movements.
Conclusion
The historical journey of Australia's cash rate is more than a series of numbers; it's a reflection of the nation's economic resilience and the strategic foresight of its policymakers. As we look towards the future, this history serves as a reminder of the importance of adaptability, sound economic management, and the role of informed policy decisions in navigating the complexities of the global economy.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are strictly for general informational and entertainment purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice or recommendations.
